En torno al uso del INPC como meta de la política monetaria

Palabras clave: índice de precios al consumidor, ecuación fundamental de las Cuentas Nacionales, números índices a la Paasche y a la Laspeyres, meta inflacionaria, Banco de México

Resumen

Utilizando a la primera ecuación fundamental de las Cuentas Nacionales −la cual está basada en un índice de cantidades a la Laspeyres y uno de precios a la Paasche− y al documento metodológico del Índice Nacional de Precios al Consumidor publicado por el INEGI se argumentará, desde el análisis económico y la teoría de los números índices y su medición −incluida la literatura de los errores y sesgos−, que la variable observada que se corresponde con la definición del nivel de precios es el índice de precios implícito del PIB. El objetivo será entonces evidenciar la incompatibilidad entre una noción teórica −la referida al nivel de precios− y el uso de la tasa de crecimiento del INPC −ligada a la medición del poder de compra de las familias− como meta de la política monetaria. Al mismo tiempo, se proponen algunas soluciones explícitamente dirigidas al Banco de México y al INEGI.

Clasificación JEL: E31; E52; D11.

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2021-01-08
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