Efectos de la deuda pública subnacional en la inversión pública productiva en México (Effects of subnational public debt on public productive investment in Mexico)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2019v34n87/GarciaPalabras clave:
Deuda pública, inversión pública, efectos aleatorios, crecimiento regional, Public debt, public investment, random effects, regional growth.Resumen
Explorando los efectos de la deuda pública a nivel estatal, se encuentra que esta se suele dirigir a gasto corriente, a pesar de la obligación legal que estas entidades tienen de dirigirla a inversión pública. Se realiza un análisis de datos en panel con efectos aleatorios donde se obtiene la estimación del efecto de la deuda en la inversión pública, y de estas dos variables en el producto per cápita en los estados de la república. Se encuentra que existe un efecto pequeño pero significativo en el nivel de deuda con la inversión pública, así como un efecto con las mismas características entre la inversión pública y el producto per cápita. Este efecto es consistente con la teoría de que un nivel muy alto de deuda pública ejerce presiones sobre el gasto que se reflejan en bajos niveles de inversión pública.
Abstract
Exploring the effects of state-level public debt, I find that it tends to be directed towards current expenditures, despite the entities’ legal obligation to direct it to public investment. A panel data analysis is carried out with random effects where the estimation of the effect of the debt on public investment is obtained and of these two variables in the per capita product in the states of the republic. It is found that there is a small but significant effect on the level of debt with public investment as well as an effect with the same characteristics between public investment and per capita output. This effect is consistent with the theory that a very high level of public debt exerts pressure on spending that is reflected in low levels of public investment.
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