Determinantes macroeconómicos del saldo promedio de las cuentas de jubilación en México
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2022v37n94/AngelesPalabras clave:
Ahorro para el retiro, series de tiempo, pensiones, MéxicoResumen
RESUMEN
El ahorro promedio para la jubilación en México es persistentemente bajo, las causas no son solo microeconómicas sino también macroeconómicas, estas últimas rara vez se han estudiado en la literatura para las economías emergentes. Este artículo tiene como objetivo explorar los determinantes macroeconómicos del ahorro promedio para la jubilación en México. Usamos series de tiempo en bases mensuales, de enero de 2009 a diciembre de 2020, y encontramos que la actividad económica, el mercado de valores y los salarios promedio reales tienen un impacto positivo en el ahorro promedio para la jubilación, mientras que el empleo formal y la razón de dependencia lo reducen. El impacto de la actividad económica se transmite a través del empleo y el salario real. Los resultados brindan nuevos conocimientos para diseñar acciones y políticas que potencien los beneficios de las variables macroeconómicas sobre el saldo del ahorro para la jubilación.
Clasificación JEL: C22; E21; H55; J26.
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Barth, James R., Joo, Sunghoon and Lee, Kang B. (2018). Another Look at the Determinants of the Financial Conditions of State Pension Plans. Journal of Economics and Finance, 42, 421-450. htpps://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-017-9402-1
Bayar, Yilmaz (2016). Individual Pension Funds and Capital Market Development in Turkey. Review of Economics & Business, 9 (2), 95-109. htpps://doi.org/ 10.1515/rebs-2016-0036
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Börsch-Supan, Axel, Bucher-Koenen, Tabea, Coppola, Michela and Lamla, Bettina (2015). Savings in Times of Demographic Change: Lessons from the German Experience. Journal of Economic Surveys, 29 (4), 807-829. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12116
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Engle, Robert F., Granger, Clive W. J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica 55 (2), 251-276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
Fernández-López, Sara, Vivel-Búa, Milagors, Otero-González, Luis, & Durán-Santomil, Pablo (2015). ‘Exploring the gender effect on Europeans’ retirement savings. Feminist Economics, 21(4), 118–150. https://doi.org/ 10.1080/13545701.2015.1005653.
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Fontes, Angela (2011). Differences in the Likelihood of Ownership Retirement Saving Assets by the Foreign and Native-Born. Journal of Family and Economic Issues, 32, 612-624. https://doi.org/ 10.1007/s10834-011-9262-3
Giovanis, Eleftherios and Ozdamar, Oznur (2018). Health Status, Mental Health, and Air Quality: Evidence from Pensioners in Europe. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25, 14206-14225. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-1534-0
Goda, Gopi S., Levy, Matthew, Manchester, Colleen F., Sojourner, Aaron and Tasoff, Joshua (2019). Predicting Retirement Savings Using Survey Measures of Exponential-Growth Bias and Present Bias’, Economic Inquiry, 57(3), 1636-1658. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12792
Goyal, A. (2004). Demographics, Stockmarket Flows, and Stock Returns. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 39 (1), 115–142. https://www.jstor.org/stable/30031897
Harris, Mark N., Loundes, Joanne and Webster, Elizabeth (2002). Determinants of Household Savings in Australia. The Economic Record, 78 (241), 207-223. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-4932.00024
Harrod, Roy F. (1939). An Essay in Dynamic Theory. The Economic Journal, 49 (193), 14–33
Holzner, Mario, Jestl, Stefan and Pichler, David (2019). Public and Private Pension Systems and Macroeconomic Volatility in OECD Countries, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies Working Paper 172.
Horioka, Charles Y. and Tereda-Hagiwara, Akiko (2016). The Impact of Sex Ratios Before Marriage on Household Saving in Two Asian Countries: The Competitive Saving Motive Revisited. Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper, 494.
Impavido, G., Musalem, A. R., Tressel, T. (2003). The Impact of Contractual Savings Institutions on Securities Markets. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 2948. Washington: The world Bank.
IMSS, Instituto Mexicano de Seguridad Social (2021) Cifras de Salario, Gobierno de México, Published in Tableau Public. https://public.tableau.com/profile/imss.cpe#!/vizhome/Histrico_4/Empleo_h?publish=yes
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Keynes, John Maynard (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. London: Macmillan.
Kim, Hee-Sik (2010). Spillover Effects of Pension Funds on Capital Markets – The Mechanisms and Preconditions, Bank of Korea. http://growth-institutions.ec.unipi.it/pages/Pension_system/spillover.pdf
Kim, Hyungsso, Serah Shin, Claudia J., Heath, Qun Zhang and Higgins, E. Tory (2017). Regulatory Model and Willingness to Increase Retirement Savings Contributions. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 47 (8), 436-445. https://doi.org/10.1111/jasp.12450
Lisenkova, Katerina and Bornukova, Kateryna (2017). Effects of Population Ageing on the Pension System in Belarus. Baltic Journal of Economics, 17 (2), 103-118. https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099X.2017.1318000
Lucas, Robert E. (1988). On the Mechanics of Economic Development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22 (1) 3-42.
https://doi.org/ 10.1016/0304-3932(88)90168-7
Metzger, Christoph (2017). Who is Saving Privately for Retirement and How Much? New Evidence for Germany. International Review of Applied Economics, 31 (6), 811-831. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2017.1338676
Modigliani, Franco and Brumberg, Richard (1954). Utility analysis and the consumption function; an interpretation of cross-section data. In K. Kurihara (Ed.), Post-Keynesian economics, pp. 388–436, New Jersey: Rutgers University Press.
Modigliani, Franco. (1986). Life Cycle, Individual Thrift, and the Wealth of Nations. Science, 234(4777), 704–712. http://doi.org/10.1126/science.234.4777.704
Morales Ramírez, María Ascensión (2020). ¿Cómo Replantear el Sistema de Pensiones? Pluralidad y Consenso, 10(45), 2-9.
Niżnik Joanna, Owsiak Katarzyna. (2020). Occupational Pension Scheme in Poland. In: Bilgin M., Danis H., Karabulut G., Gözgor G. (eds). Eurasian Economic Perspectives. Eurasian Studies in Business and Economics, vol 13/1. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-40375-1_5
Ofori-Abebrese, Grace, Pickson, Robert Becker y Abubakari, Sherifatu (2017). Assessing the impact of macroeconomic variables on pension benefits in Ghana: A case of Social Security and National Insurance Trust. South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences, 20 (1), 1-10. https://dx.doi.org/10.4102/sajems.v20i1.1703
Ordóñez-Barba, Gerardo and Ramírez-Sanchez, Miguel A. (2018). Social Security in Mexico after two Decades of Privatization Reforms. Balance and Perspective. Estudios sobre Estado y Sociedad. XXV (73), 121-158. http://dx.doi.org/10.32870/
Pesaran, H. Hashem and Shin, Yongcheol (1998). Generalized Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models. Economics Letters, 58 (1), 17–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(97)00214-0.
Poterba, James M. (1998). Population Age Structure and Asset Returns: An Empirical Investigation. NBER working paper 6774
Ramirez, Berenice (2019). The Need to Build a System of Public Pensions in Mexican Society. El Trimestre Económico, 86 (344), 967-1001. https://doi.org/10.20430/ete.v86i344.982
Romer, Paul M. (1986). Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 94 (5), 1002–1037.
Rey-Ares, Lucia, Fernández-López, Sara and Vivel-Búa, Milagors (2015). The Determinants of Privately Savings for Retirement: The Cases of Portugal and Spain. European Journal of Applied Business Management, 1 (1), 69-92.
Rey-Ares, Lucia, Fernández-López, Sara and Vivel-Búa, Milagors (2018). The Influence of Social Models on Retirement Savings: Evidence for European Countries. Social Indicators Research, 136 (1), 247-268. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-016-1533-9
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Ashok, Thomas, Luca, Spataro and Nanditha, Mathew (2014). Pension Funds and Stock Market Volatility: An Empirical Analysis of OECD Countries, Journal of Financial Stability, 11, 92-103. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2014.01.001
Babalos, Vassilios and Stavroyiannis, Stavros (2020) ‘Pension Funds and Stock Market Development in OECD Countries: Novel Evidence from a Panel VAR. Finance Research Letters, 34 (May), 1-8. htpps://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2019.07.020
Barth, James R., Joo, Sunghoon and Lee, Kang B. (2018). Another Look at the Determinants of the Financial Conditions of State Pension Plans. Journal of Economics and Finance, 42, 421-450. htpps://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-017-9402-1
Bayar, Yilmaz (2016). Individual Pension Funds and Capital Market Development in Turkey. Review of Economics & Business, 9 (2), 95-109. htpps://doi.org/ 10.1515/rebs-2016-0036
Becketti, Sean (2013) Introduction to Time Series Using Stata, Texas: Stata Press. ISBN-10: 1-59718-132-3. ISBN-13: 978-1-59718-132-7.
Benartzi, Shlomo and Thaler, Richard (2007). Heuristics and Biases in Retirement Savings Behaviour. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21 (3), 81–104. http://doi.org/10.1257/jep.21.3.81
Bergantino, Steven M. (1998). Lifecycle Investment Behavior, Demographics, and Asset Prices. (Doctoral Dissertation), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Economics
Bidisha, Sayeme Haque, Abdullah, SM and Islam, Mohammad Mainul (2019). Is there any Long Run Relationship between Dependency Ratio and Economic Growth? Evidences from Bangladesh’, Demography India, 48 (2), 105-120.
BMV, Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (2021). Índice de Precios y Cotizaciones, Datos Históricos Mensuales. https://mx.investing.com/indices/ipc-historical-data
Börsch-Supan, Axel, Bucher-Koenen, Tabea, Coppola, Michela and Lamla, Bettina (2015). Savings in Times of Demographic Change: Lessons from the German Experience. Journal of Economic Surveys, 29 (4), 807-829. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12116
Centeno Cruz, Lillian M., Campoy Muñoz, Pilar and Angeles Castro, Gerardo (2019). Economic Impact Assessment of Alternative Investment Scenarios for Pension Funds in Mexico. Ensayos Revista de Economía, 38 (1), 87-134. http://dx.doi.org/10.29105/ensayos38.1-4
Clark, Robert L. and Mitchell, Oliva S. (2020). Target Date Defaults in a Public Sector Retirement Saving Plan. Southern Economic Journal, 86 (3), 1133 – 1149. https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12415
Clavellina Miller, José Luis (2020). Reforma al Sistema de Pensiones en México 2020. Cuaderno de Investigación en Finanzas Públicas, octubre 2020, Instituto Belisario Domínguez, Senado de la República,
CONSAR (2021). Cuentas Administradas por las Afores, Recursos Registrados en las Afores. https://www.consar.gob.mx/gobmx/aplicativo/siset/Series.aspx?cd=10&cdAlt=False
CONAPO, Consejo Nacional de Población (2021). Proyecciones de Población, República Mexicana, por año, edad y sexo. https://datos.gob.mx/busca/dataset/proyecciones-de-la-poblacion-de-mexico-y-de-las-entidades-federativas-2016-2050
Crossley, Thomas F., de Bresser, Jochem, Delaney, Liam and Winter, Joachim (2017). Can Survey Participation Alter Household Saving Behaviour? The Economic Journal, 127 (606), 2332–2357. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12398
Dayoub, Mariam, and Lasagabaster, Esperanza (2008). General Trends in Competition Policy and Investment Regulation in Mandatory Defined Contribution Markets in Latin America. Policy Research Working Paper Series 4720. Washington: The World Bank
Domar, Evsey D. (1946). Capital Expansion, Rate of Growth and Employment. Econometrica, (14) 2, 137–147. https://doi.org/ 10.2307/1905364
Duesenberry, James Stemble (1949). Income, saving and the theory of consumer behaviour. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Dutta, Alok Ranjan (2017). Interdependence Between Register and Unregister Manufacturing Sectors – Evidence from Assam’ Assam Economic Review, 10, March, 114-128.
Enache, Cosmin, Miloş, Laura Raisa and Miloş, Marius Cristian (2015). Pension Reform and Capital Market Development in Central and Eastern European countries. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 28 (1), 75-84. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2015.1022388
Engle, Robert F., Granger, Clive W. J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica 55 (2), 251-276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
Fernández-López, Sara, Vivel-Búa, Milagors, Otero-González, Luis, & Durán-Santomil, Pablo (2015). ‘Exploring the gender effect on Europeans’ retirement savings. Feminist Economics, 21(4), 118–150. https://doi.org/ 10.1080/13545701.2015.1005653.
Friedman, Milton (1957). The Permanent Income Hypothesis, Chapter III, Princeton University Press, pp 20-37. ISBN 978-0-691-04182-7.
Fontes, Angela (2011). Differences in the Likelihood of Ownership Retirement Saving Assets by the Foreign and Native-Born. Journal of Family and Economic Issues, 32, 612-624. https://doi.org/ 10.1007/s10834-011-9262-3
Giovanis, Eleftherios and Ozdamar, Oznur (2018). Health Status, Mental Health, and Air Quality: Evidence from Pensioners in Europe. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25, 14206-14225. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-1534-0
Goda, Gopi S., Levy, Matthew, Manchester, Colleen F., Sojourner, Aaron and Tasoff, Joshua (2019). Predicting Retirement Savings Using Survey Measures of Exponential-Growth Bias and Present Bias’, Economic Inquiry, 57(3), 1636-1658. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12792
Goyal, A. (2004). Demographics, Stockmarket Flows, and Stock Returns. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 39 (1), 115–142. https://www.jstor.org/stable/30031897
Harris, Mark N., Loundes, Joanne and Webster, Elizabeth (2002). Determinants of Household Savings in Australia. The Economic Record, 78 (241), 207-223. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-4932.00024
Harrod, Roy F. (1939). An Essay in Dynamic Theory. The Economic Journal, 49 (193), 14–33
Holzner, Mario, Jestl, Stefan and Pichler, David (2019). Public and Private Pension Systems and Macroeconomic Volatility in OECD Countries, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies Working Paper 172.
Horioka, Charles Y. and Tereda-Hagiwara, Akiko (2016). The Impact of Sex Ratios Before Marriage on Household Saving in Two Asian Countries: The Competitive Saving Motive Revisited. Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper, 494.
Impavido, G., Musalem, A. R., Tressel, T. (2003). The Impact of Contractual Savings Institutions on Securities Markets. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 2948. Washington: The world Bank.
IMSS, Instituto Mexicano de Seguridad Social (2021) Cifras de Salario, Gobierno de México, Published in Tableau Public. https://public.tableau.com/profile/imss.cpe#!/vizhome/Histrico_4/Empleo_h?publish=yes
INEGI, Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (2021) Sistema de Cuentas Nacionales de México, Indicador Global de la Actividad Económica, Año Base 2013. https://www.inegi.org.mx/temas/igae/#Tabulados
Keynes, John Maynard (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. London: Macmillan.
Kim, Hee-Sik (2010). Spillover Effects of Pension Funds on Capital Markets – The Mechanisms and Preconditions, Bank of Korea. http://growth-institutions.ec.unipi.it/pages/Pension_system/spillover.pdf
Kim, Hyungsso, Serah Shin, Claudia J., Heath, Qun Zhang and Higgins, E. Tory (2017). Regulatory Model and Willingness to Increase Retirement Savings Contributions. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 47 (8), 436-445. https://doi.org/10.1111/jasp.12450
Lisenkova, Katerina and Bornukova, Kateryna (2017). Effects of Population Ageing on the Pension System in Belarus. Baltic Journal of Economics, 17 (2), 103-118. https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099X.2017.1318000
Lucas, Robert E. (1988). On the Mechanics of Economic Development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22 (1) 3-42.
https://doi.org/ 10.1016/0304-3932(88)90168-7
Metzger, Christoph (2017). Who is Saving Privately for Retirement and How Much? New Evidence for Germany. International Review of Applied Economics, 31 (6), 811-831. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2017.1338676
Modigliani, Franco and Brumberg, Richard (1954). Utility analysis and the consumption function; an interpretation of cross-section data. In K. Kurihara (Ed.), Post-Keynesian economics, pp. 388–436, New Jersey: Rutgers University Press.
Modigliani, Franco. (1986). Life Cycle, Individual Thrift, and the Wealth of Nations. Science, 234(4777), 704–712. http://doi.org/10.1126/science.234.4777.704
Morales Ramírez, María Ascensión (2020). ¿Cómo Replantear el Sistema de Pensiones? Pluralidad y Consenso, 10(45), 2-9.
Niżnik Joanna, Owsiak Katarzyna. (2020). Occupational Pension Scheme in Poland. In: Bilgin M., Danis H., Karabulut G., Gözgor G. (eds). Eurasian Economic Perspectives. Eurasian Studies in Business and Economics, vol 13/1. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-40375-1_5
Ofori-Abebrese, Grace, Pickson, Robert Becker y Abubakari, Sherifatu (2017). Assessing the impact of macroeconomic variables on pension benefits in Ghana: A case of Social Security and National Insurance Trust. South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences, 20 (1), 1-10. https://dx.doi.org/10.4102/sajems.v20i1.1703
Ordóñez-Barba, Gerardo and Ramírez-Sanchez, Miguel A. (2018). Social Security in Mexico after two Decades of Privatization Reforms. Balance and Perspective. Estudios sobre Estado y Sociedad. XXV (73), 121-158. http://dx.doi.org/10.32870/
Pesaran, H. Hashem and Shin, Yongcheol (1998). Generalized Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models. Economics Letters, 58 (1), 17–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(97)00214-0.
Poterba, James M. (1998). Population Age Structure and Asset Returns: An Empirical Investigation. NBER working paper 6774
Ramirez, Berenice (2019). The Need to Build a System of Public Pensions in Mexican Society. El Trimestre Económico, 86 (344), 967-1001. https://doi.org/10.20430/ete.v86i344.982
Romer, Paul M. (1986). Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 94 (5), 1002–1037.
Rey-Ares, Lucia, Fernández-López, Sara and Vivel-Búa, Milagors (2015). The Determinants of Privately Savings for Retirement: The Cases of Portugal and Spain. European Journal of Applied Business Management, 1 (1), 69-92.
Rey-Ares, Lucia, Fernández-López, Sara and Vivel-Búa, Milagors (2018). The Influence of Social Models on Retirement Savings: Evidence for European Countries. Social Indicators Research, 136 (1), 247-268. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-016-1533-9
Rolison, Jonathan J,. Hanoch, Yaniv and Wood, Stacey (2017). Saving for the Future: Dynamic Effects of Time Horizon. Journal of Behavioural and Experimental Economics, 70, 47-54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2017.07.006
Solow, Robert M. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70 (1), 65–94.
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2022-01-05
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Angeles Castro, G., Centeno Cruz, L. M., & Campoy Muñoz, P. (2022). Determinantes macroeconómicos del saldo promedio de las cuentas de jubilación en México. Análisis Económico, 37(94), 23–41. https://doi.org/10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2022v37n94/Angeles
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