Ahorro y patrones de comportamiento colectivo en el sistema de pensiones de México
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2022v37n94/TribertiPalabras clave:
Hipótesis del Ciclo de Vida, Ahorros, Informalidad, Modelo de Series de Tiempo, Modelos VARResumen
Países como México, con mercados laborales altamente informales, podrían beneficiarse de la identificación de actitudes y comportamientos colectivos hacia el ahorro. En ese sentido, el presente trabajo busca construir sobre el debate del marco de decisiones a corto/largo plazo de la Teoría Conductual del Ciclo de Vida (BLC), recalcando actitudes colectivas asimétricas hacia el ahorro dependiendo de la condición formal o informal de los agentes en el mercado laboral. A través de una estrategia empírica centrada en datos del mercado laboral mexicano y su sistema de pensiones, el análisis emplea técnicas de series de tiempo para estudiar la relación colectiva entre dos tipos de ahorro, el voluntario y el obligatorio, y los distintos tipos de participación en el mercado laboral. Los resultados sugieren que existe una relación asimétrica de corto plazo entre las condiciones informales y formales respecto a las decisiones bajo los esquemas de ahorro voluntario y obligatorio.
Clasificación JEL: C32; D14; D15; E21; E26
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Shefrin, H. M., & Thaler, R. H. (1988). The Behavioral Life‐Cycle Hypothesis. Economic Inquiry, vol. 26(4), pp. 609–643. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.1988.tb01520.x
Sims, C. (1972). Money, income and causality. American Economic Review, 62 (4), 540–52. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1806097
Sims, C. (1980). Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica, Vol. 48 (1), pp. 1- 48. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912017
Villagómez, A. (2016). Panorama del Sistema de Pensiones en México. https://www.senado.gob.mx/comisiones/seguridad_social/docs/ss_2016/ava.pdf
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Xiao, J.J., & Olson, G.I. (1993). Mental accounting and saving behavior. Home Economics Research Journal, vol 22 (1), pp. 92-109. https://doi.org/10.1177/004677749302200105
Ballinger, T., Palumbo, M., & Wilcox, N. (2003). Precautionary saving and social learning across generations: an experiment. The Economic Journal, vol. 113, no. 490, pp. 920–947. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.t01-1-00158
Baumeister, R. F., & Vohs, K. D. (2004). Handbook of self-regulation: Research, theory, and applications, The Guilford Press.
Brown, A. L., Chua, Z. E., & Camerer, C. F. (2009). Learning and visceral temptation in dynamic saving experiments. Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 124 (1), pp. 197–231. https://doi.org/10.1162/qjec.2009.124.1.197
Carbone, E., & Hey, J. (2004). The effect of unemployment on consumption: an experimental analysis, The Economic Journal vol. 114, no. 497, pp. 660–683. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2004.00236.x
Carbone, E., & Duffy, J. (2014). Lifecycle consumption plans, social learning and external habits: Experimental evidence. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, vol. 106, pp. 413–427. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2014.07.010
CONSAR. (2020). Recursos registrados en las AFORES.
https://www.consar.gob.mx/gobmx/aplicativo/siset/CuadroInicial.aspx?md=2
De la Torre, A., & Rudolph, H. (2018). The troubled state of pension systems in Latin America. Global Economy and Development, Working Paper 112. The Brookings Institution.
Elster, J. (1977). Ulysses and the sirens: A theory of imperfect rationality. Social Science Information, vol. 16 (5), pp. 469–526. https://doi.org/10.1177/053901847701600501
Faber, R., & Vohs, K. D. (2004). To buy or not to buy? Self-control and self-regulatory failure in purchase behavior. In R. F. Baumeister & K. D. Vohs (Eds.), Handbook of self-regulation: Research, theory, and application, Guilford Press, pp. 509–524.
Graham, F., & Isaac, A. G. (2002). The behavioral life-cycle theory of consumer behavior: Survey evidence. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, vol. 48(4), pp. 391–401. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2681(01)00242-6
Gottlieb, D. & Mitchell, O.S. (2019). Narrow Framing and Long-Term Care Insurance. Journal of Risk and Insurance, vol 87 (4), pp. 861-893. https://doi.org/10.1111/jori.12290
Hey, J., & Dardanoni, V. (1988). Optimal consumption under uncertainty: an experimental investigation, Economic Journal, vol. 98(390), pp. 105–116. https://doi.org/10.2307/2233308
INEGI. (2020). Empleo y ocupación. https://www.inegi.org.mx/temas/empleo/#Tabulados
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk, Econometrica, vol. 47(2), pp. 263-291. https://doi.org/10.2307/1914185
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1984). Choices, Values, and Frames. American Psychologist, vol. 39 (4), pp. 341-350. https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.39.4.341
Martínez, J. & St. Clair, T. (2021). Pension Reform and Self-Employment in Latin America. Review of Development Economics. June. https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12790
Modigliani, F. & Brumberg, R.H. (1954). Utility analysis and the consumption function: an interpretation of cross-section data. In Kenneth K. Kurihara, ed., Post-Keynesian Economics, New Brunswick, NJ. Rutgers University Press, pp. 388–436.
Modigliani, F. (1986). Life Cycle, Individual Thrift, and the Wealth of Nations. American Economic Review, vol. 76, issue 3, pp. 297-313. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1813352
Loewenstein, G., & Thaler, R. H. (1989). Anomalies: Intertemporal Choice. Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 3(4), pp. 181–193. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.3.4.181
OECD. (2019a). Pensions at a Glance. In Pensions at a Glance. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264059771-en
OECD. (2019b). Pensions: coverage and replacement rates. In Society at a Glance: Asia/Pacific 2019, OECD Publishing, Paris. https://doi.org/10.1787/c7d56eca-en
Perez, F.A. (2021). Reforma al sistema de pensiones: impacto presupuestario. Economía plateada y finanzas públicas. Centro de Investigación Económica y Presupuestaria, A.C. https://ciep.mx/QsPL
Pistaferri, L. (2009). The Life-Cycle Hypothesis: An Assessment of Some Recent Evidence, Rivista Di Politica Economica, vol. 99 (2), pp. 35–66, April-June.
Shin, S., Kim, H., & Heath, C. J. (2019). Narrow Framing and Retirement Savings Decisions. Journal of Consumer Affairs, vol. 53(3), pp. 975–997. https://doi.org/10.1111/joca.12211
Shefrin, H. M., & Thaler, R. H. (1988). The Behavioral Life‐Cycle Hypothesis. Economic Inquiry, vol. 26(4), pp. 609–643. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.1988.tb01520.x
Sims, C. (1972). Money, income and causality. American Economic Review, 62 (4), 540–52. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1806097
Sims, C. (1980). Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica, Vol. 48 (1), pp. 1- 48. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912017
Villagómez, A. (2016). Panorama del Sistema de Pensiones en México. https://www.senado.gob.mx/comisiones/seguridad_social/docs/ss_2016/ava.pdf
Villareal, H., & Macías, A. (2020). El sistema de pensiones en México: institucionalidad, gasto público y sostenibilidad financiera. Santiago: Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL). https://imef.org.mx/descargas/2018/septiembre/SISTEMA_PENSIONARIO_21SEPT_IMEF.pdf
Xiao, J.J., & Olson, G.I. (1993). Mental accounting and saving behavior. Home Economics Research Journal, vol 22 (1), pp. 92-109. https://doi.org/10.1177/004677749302200105
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Publicado
2022-01-05
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Triberti, G., & Massa, R. (2022). Ahorro y patrones de comportamiento colectivo en el sistema de pensiones de México. Análisis Económico, 37(94), 7–21. https://doi.org/10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2022v37n94/Triberti
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