Desempleo y Producto en México, Estados Unidos y Canadá: Una relación no lineal
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2022v37n95/RodriguezPalabras clave:
Desempleo, índice de producción industrial, Ley de Okun, modelo autorregresivo con rezago distribuido no lineal (NARDL).Resumen
Analizamos la relación entre las variaciones de la tasa de desempleo y la tasa de crecimiento de la producción (Ley de Okun) para los casos de México, Estados Unidos y Canadá en el periodo 2006M01-2019M11. Nuestra hipótesis es que los choques cíclicos pueden afectar de forma permanente el desempleo estructural. Utilizamos un modelo autorregresivo con rezagos distribuidos no lineal (NARDL); probamos el supuesto de efectos simétricos en la Ley de Okun. Los resultados econométricos sugieren que no hay evidencia de una Ley de Okun asimétrica en México, mientras que sí la hay en el corto y largo plazos para EE. UU. y Canadá, respectivamente. Estas discrepancias confirman la relevancia de estudiar los efectos no-lineales en dicha ley. La correcta identificación de estos efectos es útil para la reforma del mercado laboral y para el diseño de políticas de estabilización.
Clasificación JEL: C22; E32; J64.
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Derechos de autor 2022 Domingo Rodríguez Benavides
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0.
