Convergencia económica interestatal en México, 1900-2004 (Economic convergence between Mexican states during the period 1900-2004) (Análisis Económico, 2018)
El presente estudio aporta evidencia sobre las tendencias y condicionantes del proceso dereducción de la brecha económica entre estados y por estados. A partir de cortes temporales de mediano y largo plazo que comprenden el periodo 1900-2004, se concluye que en México la tasa de convergencia interestatal ha sido muy baja y ha tendido a declinar en forma continua. Pese a ello, no se encuentra evidencia fuerte de que la apertura detonó en un claro proceso de divergencia regional, pero sí, que no ha logrado contener en forma significativa las preocupantes disparidades económicas entre estados. Antes por el contrario, la tasa de convergencia para el periodo de mayor apertura, resulta no significativa cuando se evalúa en forma absoluta y alcanza lo niveles más bajos desde 1900 si se estima en forma condicional.En este contexto, la existencia de regímenes diferenciados y contrapuestos de crecimientoentre estados, y los insuficientes avances en materia educativa, se revelan como dos delos factores más relevantes que explican el retroceso del aceptable ritmo de convergenciaregional que había alcanzado el país durante 1970-1985.Clasificación JEL: O18, R12, C23. AbstractThe present work offers evidence on tendencies, and the conditions by which the process of reducing differences between states, and by states has occurred. Using medium, and long term divisions of the 1900-2004 period, the author arrives at the conclusion that the rate of convergence between states in Mexico has been very low, and has tended to decrease continuously. Despite these findings, there does not exist strong evidence that the opening up of the economy detonated a clear process of regional divergence, but yes, that it has not managed to stop, in any significant way, worrying economic dis- parities between states. On the contrary, the convergence rate for the period of maximum opening up was not significant when evaluated in absolute terms, and reached the lowest levels since 1900 when estimated conditionally. In this context, the existence of different, and even opposite types of growth patterns between states, and insufficient advances in educational terms, were shown to be two of the most important factors for explaining the retrocession in an acceptable rhythm of regional convergence that the country had reached by the period 1970-1985.