Determinantes del crédito bancario otorgado al sector industrial mexicano, 2008-2018
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2023v38n98/CisnerosPalabras clave:
Crédito Bancario, Industria, PIB, Sistema Financiero, Solicitudes de créditoResumen
El sector industrial desempeña un papel importante para la economía de México. El 32% del PIB proviene de empresas insertadas en el sector industrial, lo que genera un impacto positivo, pues en dichas organizaciones se crean nuevos empleos, nuevos ingresos, que ayudan al crecimiento económico. No obstante, las empresas del giro industrial necesitan adquirir recursos para poder desarrollarse, y una de las maneras de lograrlo es por medio del crédito bancario; en ese sentido, se torna una situación compleja debido al constreñimiento crediticio existente, derivada de una serie de sucesos en el sistema financiero y en el bancario, como la diversificación de mercados – banca múltiple – y las endebles regulaciones. Este artículo investiga las determinantes para que un crédito bancario otorgado sea destinado al sector industrial en México. Los datos cuantitativos corresponden al periodo 2008-2018; no obstante, la base del ENAFIN contiene datos del 2010 al 2018, generando una limitante para hacer más robusta la investigación. Los análisis de regresión empleados – PROBIT y TOBIT –, arrojan un pronóstico que cuando mejora la economía, se incrementa la probabilidad (94%) de que un crédito bancario aprobado sea otorgado a una empresa del sector industrial; por otra parte, un incremento de los montos de los créditos bancarios otorgados a otros rubros y una subida en el número de solicitudes de crédito hacen que disminuya la probabilidad (24% y 15%, respectivamente). Con base en estos resultados, se deriva la urgencia de las implicaciones políticas que ayuden a mejorar el vínculo del crédito bancario con las empresas del sector industrial.
Clasificación JEL: A1; C1; F65; G20.
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Derechos de autor 2023 David Salvador Cisneros Zepeda
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0.
