Estudio neoclásico y multifactorial sobre las tasas de migración americanas hacia Estados Unidos, 2000-2019
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2022v37n95/SolorzanoPalabras clave:
Migración Internacional, Modelos de Datos Panel.Resumen
El objetivo de este trabajo consiste en identificar, de forma agregada, los determinantes de las tasas de migración hacia Estados Unidos del continente americano (mediante las observaciones reconocidas por el Instituto de Políticas Migratorias). Utilizando como base teórica al enfoque neoclásico, fundamentado en los modelajes de Borjas (1999) y de Harris y Todaro (1970), y el multifactorial sistémico, empíricamente referenciado por DeWaard et al., (2009). Para llevar a cabo este estudio, se ha instrumentado un análisis con datos panel para el periodo de 2000-2019, tomando en cuenta, para la selección de variables regresoras, lo que el gobierno estadounidense plantea como temas económicos estratégicos como “causas raíces de la migración”, los cuales son: la inversión, el nivel de empleo, la inflación y la captura de posibles efectos colaterales de los tratados comerciales.
Clasificación JEL: F22; C23.
Descargas
Citas
Adams Jr, R. (1993). The economic and demographic determinants of international migration in rural Egypt. The Journal of Development Studies, vol.30, no.1, pp. 146-167. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220389308422308
Adkins, L. & Carter R. (2011). Using Stata for principles of econometrics. John Wiley & sons, inc.
Amano, M. (1983). On the Harris-Todaro model with intersectoral migration of labour. Economica, vol.50, no.199, pp. 311-323. https://doi.org/10.2307/2553973
Bakewell, O. (2014). Relaunching migration systems. Migration Studies, vol.2, no.3, pp. 300-318. https://doi.org/10.1093/migration/mnt023
Bakewell, O., De Haas, H., & Kubal, A. (2012). Migration systems, pioneer migrants and the role of agency. Journal of critical realism, vol.11, no.4, pp. 413-437. https://doi.org/10.1558/jcr.v11i4.413
Baltagi, B. (2005). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Böhme, M., Gröger, A., & Stöhr, T. (2020). Searching for a better life: Predicting international migration with online search keywords. Journal of Development Economics, no.142, pp. 1-14.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2019.04.002
Borjas, G. (1989). Economic theory and international migration. International migration review, vol.23, no.3, pp. 457-485. https://doi.org/10.1177/019791838902300304
Borjas, G. (1999). The economic analysis of immigration. Handbook of labor economics. Harvard University.
Borjas, G. (2019). Immigration and Economic Growth. In Diamond, J.W., and Zodrow, G.R. (editors) Prospects for Economic Growth in the United. Cambridge University Press.
Campos, R. (2017). Migratory pressures in the long run: international migration projections to 2050. Banco de España Article 38/17, pp.1-8. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3095531
Clark, J., Lawson, R., Nowrasteh, A., Powell, B., y Murphy, R. (2015). Does immigration impact institutions?. Public Choice, vol.163, no.3, pp. 321-335. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-015-0254-y
Clemens, M., y Pritchett, L. (2019). The new economic case for migration restrictions: an assessment. Journal of Development Economics, vol.138, pp. 153-164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.12.003
Dao, T., Docquier, F., Maurel, M., and Schaus, P. (2018). Global migration in the 20th and 21st centuries: the unstoppable force of demography. AFD Research Paper Series, No. 2017-55, November, pp. 1-45.
DeWaard, J., Kim, K., y Raymer, J. (2009). International Migration Systems: Evidence from Harmonized Flow Data. Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, pp. 1-27. https://cde.wisc.edu/wp-2009-07/
Docquier, F. y Machado, J. (2017). Income disparities, population and migration flows over the twenty first century. Italian Economic Journal, vol.3, no.2, pp. 125-149. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40797-017-0054-2
Etling, A., Backeberg, L., y Tholen, J. (2020). The political dimension of young people’s migration intentions: evidence from the Arab Mediterranean region. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, vol.46, no.7, pp. 1388-1404. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2018.1485093
Falaris, E. (1979). The determinants of internal migration in Peru: an economic analysis. Economic Development and Cultural Change, vol.27, no.2, pp. 327-341. https://doi.org/10.1086/451096
Garcia-Guerrero, V. (2016). A probabilistic method to forecast the international migration of Mexico by age and sex. Papeles de población, vol.22, no.88, pp. 113-140.
Gorter, C., Nijkamp, P., y Poot, J. (1998). Regional and urban perspectives on international migration: an overview. En Cees Gorter, Peter Nijkamp y Jaques Poot (editores). Crossing borders: Regional and urban perspectives on international migration, Estados Unidos. Routledge , pp. 1-31.
Harris, J., y Todaro, M. (1970). Migration, unemployment and development: a two-sector analysis. The American economic review, Vol. 60 (1), pp. 126-142.
Heckman, J. y Honore, B. (1990). The empirical content of the Roy model. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, pp. 1121-1149. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938303
House, W., y Rempel, H. (1980). The determinants of interregional migration in Kenya. World Development, vol.8, no.1, pp. 25-35. https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-750X(80)90048-0
Jacob, D. (2014). Growth and Immigration: An Econometric Analysis of Current European Union Member States from 1990 to 2009. HIM 1990-2015. 1580. https://stars.library.ucf.edu/honorstheses1990-2015/1580
Jones, G., y Fraser, R. (2021). Immigration's Effect on Institutional Quality: The Place of Simpler Evidence. Econ Journal Watch, vol.18, no.1. pp. 3–20. https://econjwatch.org/articles/immigration-s-effect-on-institutional-quality-the-place-of-simpler-evidence
Mayda, A. (2010). International migration: A panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows. Journal of population economics, vol.23, no.4, pp. 1249-1274 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-009-0251-x
Mabogunje, A. (1970). Systems Approach to a Theory of Rural–Urban Migration. Geographical Analysis, vol.2, no.1, pp. 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4632.1970.tb00140.x
Neary, J. (1981). On the Harris-Todaro model with intersectoral capital mobility. Economica, vol.48, no.191, pp. 219-234. https://doi.org/10.2307/2552914
Nelsen, R. (2019). Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and immigration policy: How 9/11 transformed the debate over illegal immigration. Doctoral dissertation, Chapman University.
Pavlik, J., Lujan, E., & Powell, B. (2021). Simpler Evidence on Immigration and Institutions: An Assessment. Econ Journal Watch, vol.18, no.1, pp. 21-34. https://econjwatch.org/articles/simpler-evidence-on-immigration-and-institutions-an-assessment
Pavlik, J., Lujan, E., & Powell, B. (2019). Cultural Baggage: Do Immigrants Import Corruption?. Southern Economic Journal, vol.85, no.4, pp. 1243-1261. https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12339
Prieto, R., Pappalardo, L., Gabrielli, L., & Bishop, S. (2018). Gravity and scaling laws of city to city migration. PloS one, vol.13, no.7, p. 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0199892
Ravlik, M. (2014). Determinants of international migration: a global analysis. Higher School of Economics Research Paper No. WP BRP, vol.52, pp.1-21. http://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2504441
Raymer, J., y Wiśniowski, A. (2018). Applying and testing a forecasting model for age and sex patterns of immigration and emigration. Population studies, vol.72, no.3, pp. 339-355. http://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2018.1469784
Roy, A. (1951). Some thoughts on the distribution of earnings. Oxford economic papers, vol.3, no.2, pp. 135-146. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.oep.a041827
Willis, K. (1975). Regression models of migration: an econometric reappraisal of some techniques. Geografiska Annaler: Series B, Human Geography, vol.57, no.1, pp. 42-54. https://doi.org/10.2307/491006
Zlotnik, H. (1992). Empirical Identification of International Migration Systems. In International Migration Systems: A Global Approach. Clarendon Press: Oxford. https://www.jstor.org/stable/3644455
Descargas
Publicado
Cómo citar
Número
Sección
Licencia
Derechos de autor 2022 Ricardo Alan Solorzano Mendoza
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0.
