El consumo en la economía financiarizada de Estados Unidos, 1970-2013 (Consumption in the US Financialized Economy, 1970-2013)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2019v34n87/SilvaPalabras clave:
Consumo, financiarización, ventana movible, regresiones recursivas, consumption, financialization, rolling window, recursive regression.Resumen
El presente estudio analiza los efectos del cambio en la forma de financiamiento del consumo de los hogares en los Estados Unidos en el periodo 1970- 2013. Se modela la relación del financiamiento del consumo con la metodología VAR cointegrado. Estimada la relación, se utiliza la metodología de ventana movible para determinar la evolución de dicha relación de forma dinámica. Los resultados muestran la importancia de los salarios como fuente de financiamiento, además de choques importantes en la recesión 2001 y 2008. La recomendación de política económica es la recuperación de los salarios a fin de procurar la dinámica de acumulación. La contribución principal es la utilización de la metodología de ventana movible para realizar un contraste dinámico.
Clasificación JEL: E12, E21, C32.
Abstract
The effect of the changed method of financing households’ consumption in the United States during the period 1970-2013 is dealt with. A cointegrated VAR and rolling window methodologies are used to both gauge such effect and determine the dynamic evolution of the said relationship. The results highlight the importance of wages at financing consumption as well as the existence of shocks upon the relationship, especially during the 2001 and 2008 recession periods. Hence the policy recommendation derived from the analysis that a sustainable capital accumulation requires increasing wage rates. The main contribution of the present paper is the application of the rolling window technique as a useful complement for a dynamic analytical contrast.
JEL classification: E12, E21, C32.
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