La dinámica de la inversión pública, deuda pública y el crecimiento económico a nivel Estatal en México
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24275/Palabras clave:
inversión pública, deuda pública estatal, Panel ARDLResumen
En la presente investigación se tiene como objetivo determinar si existen efectos de corto y largo plazo de la inversión pública y de la deuda pública en el crecimiento económico a nivel estatal en México, específicamente en el producto estatal bruto per cápita. Para ello, se estima un modelo autorregresivo de rezagos distribuidos (ARDL) para datos panel con información de los 32 estados del país durante el periodo 1999 a 2022. Los resultados confirman la existencia de una relación positiva de largo plazo entre la deuda estatal, la inversión pública y el ingreso per cápita de los estados, en línea con la hipótesis de que ambos factores contribuyen al crecimiento económico en el largo plazo. No obstante, los efectos en corto plazo son heterogéneos entre estados, con sólo algunas entidades presentando impactos positivos o negativos. Esto sugiere que, aunque los efectos de corto plazo pueden ser limitados o inconsistentes, en el largo plazo la inversión pública y la deuda estatal desempeñan un papel positivo en el crecimiento del ingreso estatal.
Clasificación JEL: O11, H74, C33.
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Derechos de autor 2026 Edson Valdés Iglesias, Roberto Gallardo Del Ángel, Christopher Cernichiaro Reyna
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