Desacoplamiento en México (1895-2023): crecimiento económico y emisiones de dióxido de carbono
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24275/Palabras clave:
Tapio, LMDI, Identidad de Kaya, Cointegración, VCEMResumen
El estudio analiza si el crecimiento económico de México se ha desacoplado de las emisiones de CO2 entre 1895 y 2023. Con base en los enfoques teóricos del desacoplamiento y del crecimiento verde, se emplean los métodos de Tapio, la identidad de Kaya, la descomposición LMDI y técnicas econométricas de cointegración y modelos VECM. Los resultados muestran que, en el mediano plazo, PIB y emisiones crecieron de forma similar (acoplamiento expansivo), mientras que, en el largo plazo, las emisiones crecieron más significativamente que la economía (desacoplamiento negativo expansivo). Aunque mejoró la eficiencia energética y disminuyó la intensidad de emisiones, las emisiones totales continuaron aumentando debido a la expansión económica y demográfica. Se concluye que México no ha logrado desacoplar estructuralmente el crecimiento económico de las emisiones, lo que implica retos significativos para la política climática y energética del país.
Clasificación JEL: O44, O54, Q50.
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Derechos de autor 2026 Rodrigo Rafael Gómez Garza, Claudio Othón Cruz Martínez
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0.
