Impacts of Bank Credit on Sectoral Employment in Mexico, 2005-2024
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24275/Keywords:
credit, employment, sectoral employment share, dynamic modelAbstract
The financing of the productive structure is a fundamental element for enhancing the capacity of economic sectors to generate employment. This article analyzes the effects of productive bank credit on the number of employed persons, the employment rate, and the sectoral employment share in Mexico during the period 2005–2024. Quarterly data on bank financing and labor market indicators from the primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors are used. Using these data, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models are estimated to identify short- and long-term relationships between credit and labor indicators. The results indicate that while bank credit stimulates aggregate employment, its impact differs across sectors. The secondary sector is the main sustained engine of job creation, whereas the tertiary sector stands out for its elasticity and proportional strengthening within the labor structure. These findings highlight the need to design productive financing policies that prioritize not only the volume of credit but also the strategic sectoral orientation of credit to maximize the positive impacts on the Mexican labor market.
JEL Classification: C32, E24, E51, J21.
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